Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
13.7 shares · live mark 97.7% · pays $1.00/share at resolution. Held to resolution by default.
Cloture needs 60 votes. GOP has 51 reliable votes. Need 8-9 Democratic crossovers. Only 2 gave conditional support. Cloture ripens Sept 15. If cloture passes, Senate text must return to the House. About 36 session days remain. P(law in 2026) about 0.15. NO at 0.73 gives about 12 points of edge.
- GOP reliable votes — 51 of 60 needed for cloture
- Democratic crossovers needed — 8-9 (only 2 conditional)
- Cloture ripens — Sept 15, ~36 session days left in 2026
- Our estimate P(law 2026) — 15%
- Entry NO — 0.73 (implied YES 27%)
| Verdict | Model | Round | Confidence | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REJECT | GPT-6 Astra | approval | confidence 8/10 | |
| APPROVE | Claude Fable 5 | approval | confidence 6/10 | |
| APPROVE | Kimi K3 | approval | confidence 7/10 |
- congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633/all-actions H.R.3633 official action timeline (cloture status, session days)
- paulhastings.com/insights/crypto-policy-tracker/cloture-file Cloture filed on Clarity Act motion to proceed — procedural tracker
- ainvest.com/news/crypto-clarity-bill-60-votes-short-2609/ Whip count: bill roughly nine votes short of 60
Cloture vote confirmed Sep 15, 2:15pm ET. GOP 53 seats; need 7+ Democrats. Seven Democrats (Alsobrooks, Booker, Cortez Masto, Gallego, Hickenlooper, Warner, Warnock) withhold support on ethics rules. Kalshi gives 34% by Jul 2027. Carry NO to the vote. If cloture fails, NO resolves 1.0.