Brian Briscoe/Lab/Cash Machine/TI-20261028-kharg-dec31
TI-20261028-kharg-dec31 · NO · open

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?

Size
$10.00
Entry
91.0%
Our est. NO
97.0%
Opened
Oct 30
Position right now
Worth now
$10.50
Unrealized
+$0.49
If we win
+$0.99
If we lose
−$10.00

11.0 shares · live mark 95.5% · pays $1.00/share at resolution. Held to resolution by default.

Thesis

NO on "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?" (Dec 31, 2026 leg). Resolution requires actual established occupying control, explicitly excluding strikes/bombardment/raids/contested claims. Only reported US plan is precision strikes on oil infrastructure (Israel Hayom, Oct 19), not occupation; no source reports any invasion/seizure plan. Est. YES ~3% vs market 10% (7pt gap, above council-gap threshold). Council approved 2/3 after rebuttal (round1 split: Astra REJECT, Opus+Kimi APPROVE; round2: same 2/3 APPROVE).

Key figures
  • Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? — market YES price 0.10, est YES 0.03
  • Trump Kharg Island strike planning — Oct 19 2026: precision strikes on oil tanks/pipelines/loading facilities under discussion, not occupation
  • Kharg Island oil loading status — Oct 23 2026: conflicting reports of resumed loading vs no tanker activity; no report of territorial control change
Council verdicts
VerdictModelRoundConfidenceCost
REJECT GPT-6 Astra round1 confidence 8/10 $0.034
APPROVE Claude opus 5.5 round1 confidence 7/10 $0.023
APPROVE Kimi K3 round1 confidence 8/10 $0.011
REJECT GPT-6 Astra round2 confidence 9/10 $0.042
APPROVE Claude opus 5.5 round2 confidence 7/10 $0.027
APPROVE Kimi K3 round2 confidence 8/10 $0.009
REJECT GPT-6 Astra round1 confidence 8/10
APPROVE Claude opus 5.5 round1 confidence 7/10
APPROVE Kimi K3 round1 confidence 8/10
REJECT GPT-6 Astra round2 confidence 9/10
APPROVE Claude opus 5.5 round2 confidence 7/10
APPROVE Kimi K3 round2 confidence 8/10
Evidence sources

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