Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?
13.2 shares · live mark 75.5% · pays $1.00/share at resolution. Held to resolution by default.
US-mediated Russia-Ukraine-US talks resume in Abu Dhabi on 10-11 Nov 2026 after a 9-month lull, the first since February 2026, but every outlet surveyed (Al Jazeera, NPR, AFP/France24) reports analysts expect no breakthrough and the Kremlin has made no visible concession beyond agreeing to talk. Russia is still demanding Ukrainian territorial withdrawal and a NATO-membership renunciation Kyiv has refused, and Europe is fighting over its own seat at the table, all signs of a process still far from a dated, mutually-agreed suspension of hostilities that this market's strict resolution criteria require.
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by Jan 31 2027 — yes 0.25 / ask 0.26 on Polymarket as of this scan
| Verdict | Model | Round | Confidence | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REJECT | GPT-6 Astra | round1 | confidence 8/10 | $0.043 |
| APPROVE | Claude opus 5.5 | round1 | confidence 7/10 | $0.030 |
| APPROVE | Kimi K3 | round1 | confidence 6/10 | $0.039 |
| REJECT | GPT-6 Astra | round2 | confidence 9/10 | $0.063 |
| APPROVE | Claude opus 5.5 | round2 | confidence 6/10 | $0.046 |
| APPROVE | Kimi K3 | round2 | confidence 7/10 | $0.029 |
- aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/9/no-concession-what-to-expect-fr Analysts interviewed by Al Jazeera said they were certain no peace accord would emerge from the Abu Dhabi talks, with Russia refusing to end its occupation and opposing foreign troop deployment post-deal.
- npr.org/2026/11/08/nx-s1-6034014/europe-join-us-brokered-ukr This is the fourth round of Trump-administration-brokered Russia-Ukraine talks, the first since the Geneva round in February 2026; earlier rounds made little progress.
- france24.com/en/live-news/20261109-ukraine-russia-talks-what The Kremlin has so far refused broader ceasefires; Ukrainian political expert Volodymyr Fesenko told AFP Ukrainians are 'very pessimistic' and Kyiv will instead push for partial/local ceasefires.