Brian Briscoe/Lab/Cash Machine/TH-20261109-133521-82e2560f
TH-20261109-133521-82e2560f · NO · open

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Size
$10.05
Entry
86.5%
Our est. NO
92.0%
Opened
today
Position right now
Worth now
$9.94
Unrealized
$-0.11
If we win
+$1.57
If we lose
−$10.05

11.6 shares · live mark 85.5% · pays $1.00/share at resolution. Held to resolution by default.

Thesis

Post-midterm Democrats are loudly calling for RFK Jr.'s resignation, but reporting from this week shows his position inside the administration is strengthening, not weakening: Trump is actively backing his autism/vaccine agenda and the incoming WH chief of staff is described as friendlier to him than his predecessor. Congressional Democrats lack the votes to force removal and insiders say he will not resign voluntarily.

Key figures
  • RFK Jr leave admin before 2027 — market yes 0.145, ask 0.15
Council verdicts
VerdictModelRoundConfidenceCost
REJECT GPT-6 Astra round1 confidence 8/10 $0.046
APPROVE Claude opus 5.5 round1 confidence 6/10 $0.035
APPROVE Kimi K3 round1 confidence 7/10 $0.033
REJECT GPT-6 Astra round2 confidence 9/10 $0.043
APPROVE Claude opus 5.5 round2 confidence 6/10 $0.035
APPROVE Kimi K3 round2 confidence 8/10 $0.013
Evidence sources

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