T1-ALIENS-NO · NO · closed

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Size: $5.00
Entry: 99.3%
Exit: 99.2%
Our est. NO: 99.9%
P/L: $-0.04
Opened: Sep 12

Thesis

Pipeline test. The US will not confirm aliens by Sep 30 2026. Near-certain NO. Purpose: prove the live rails end to end with the smallest possible risk.

Key figures

Entry 99.3% · Size $5.00 · Shares 5 · Expected profit +$0.005 · Settles Oct 1

No council verdicts recorded — this position predates the verdict ledger (Sep 12). Its approval reasoning is in the session archive, not reconstructable here.

Evidence sources

polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-b
Market book at entry: NO ask 0.999 (filled 0.993 avg with fees)

Lesson

Cloture vote confirmed Sep 15, 2:15pm ET. GOP 53 seats; need 7+ Democrats. Seven Democrats (Alsobrooks, Booker, Cortez Masto, Gallego, Hickenlooper, Warner, Warnock) withhold support on ethics rules. Kalshi gives 34% by Jul 2027. Carry NO to the vote. If cloture fails, NO resolves 1.0.

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