Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?
New leg among the top events by volume (24h volume $2,155); picked by code for a first check.
Estimate 0.070 is 0.0 points from the market YES price 0.070, under the 5-point council threshold.
- Iran coup attempt by Dec 31, 2026: Market yes 0.070, ask 0.08; no organized military/security move against leadership reported as of Nov 9, 2026
- thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2026-november-6/ As of Nov 6, 2026, Soufan Center assesses Iran's security apparatus, led by the IRGC, as cohesive and unlikely to undertake actions risking a large-scale US reaction, with little prospect of a domestic uprising toppling the regime absent outside intervention.
- www.inss.org.il/publication/iran-regime-change/ INSS (early Nov 2026) reports Iran's security apparatuses 'remain cohesive and are preparing for renewed suppression of protests' despite a severe economic and legitimacy crisis.
- www.iranintl.com/en/202611083787 On Nov 5, 2026, hardline protesters outside IRGC headquarters in Tehran publicly demanded military commanders carry out Khamenei's Oct 31 strike order, accusing the Guards of inaction -- factional pressure, not a coup.
No council record