Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?

New leg among the top events by volume (24h volume $5,324); picked by code for a first check.

Council round2: 1/3 approve (ruleset v4). Objections: [openai/gpt-6-astra] REJECT (confidence 8): Objection 1 remains unresolved: withdrawing the unsupported base rate and market validation is appropriate, but the replacement 35% estimate has no checkable calculation or calibration linking the cited reports to that probability, and “above a coin-flip baseline” does not explain a 35% estimate. The rebuttal also upgrades an announcement “expected soon” into a scheduled event without providing supporting evidence. Objection 2 is resolved by explicitly retracting the conflict claim and correctly distinguishing the corridor and fee tracks, although the rules permit a corridor-only agreement and do not require fee agreement. [anthropic/claude-opus-5.5] REJECT (confidence 6): Objection 1 (no sourced base rate, improper market validation) is conceded but not fixed. Dropping the anchor leaves 0.35 as a bare assertion with no derivation. The rebuttal is also internally inconsistent: it says the evidence supports "a probability meaningfully above a coin-flip baseline," then sets 0.35, which is below a coin flip. Objection 2 (no real conflict between Items 1 and 2) is conceded and resolved by retracting the "conflicting reports" framing. However, the replacement mechanism misreads the rules: a corridor-only agreement qualifies on its own, so the rule does not require both tracks. With the edge now only about 5 points over the 0.30 ask and the estimate's foundation still uncheckable, I no longer have grounds to approve.

Considered betting

YES (it happens)

Our estimate

38% chance YES

Would have paid

30¢ per YES share

Market

29% chance YES

Date

today

• Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by Dec 31: yes 0.29 / ask 0.30 on Polymarket as of this scan

• ilkha.com/english/world/iran-oman-reach-agreement-on-new-str
  An informed source said Iran and Oman reached a final understanding on new entry/exit transit routes for the Strait of Hormuz, expected to be formally announced soon at a meeting of Gulf foreign ministers, with Iraq also attending.
• easyreader.org/article/page/khaleejtimes/world/mena/oman-pre
  A senior Iranian source told Reuters that Tehran had not yet responded to Oman's Gulf-backed proposal for voluntary fees to use the Strait of Hormuz, as of the report dated 9 Nov 2026.
• www.theguardian.com/world/2026/nov/07/strait-of-hormuz-qatar
  Under a separate Qatari-mediated proposal reported 7 Nov 2026, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz on day two via a route it has already negotiated with Oman that the two would jointly lodge with the IMO.