Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?

New leg among the top events by volume (24h volume $4,468); picked by code for a first check.

Council round2: 0/3 approve (ruleset v4). Objections: [openai/gpt-6-astra] REJECT (confidence 9): My first objection remains unresolved: the rebuttal supplies citations for a replacement baseline but no quantitative justification for increasing 1.2–1.5% to 18%, and it repeats the unsupported claim of two explicit commitments to stay through January 2029. My second objection is only clarified, not resolved: asserting that 18% covers future-effective announcements does not demonstrate that the departure data capture that broader trigger or provide an adjustment for it. At the actual NO purchase price, the revised estimate implies $0.820 − $0.780 = $0.040 expected profit per share, approximately 5.13% before fees, but that edge remains conditional on an inadequately supported probability. [anthropic/claude-opus-5.5] REJECT (confidence 7): Objection 1 is not resolved. The sourced attrition data (4 of roughly 22-26 seats over 22 months) gives an unconditional 7-week baseline of about 1.2-1.5%, which contradicts the original 8-10% figure. The jump from that baseline to 0.18 is a 12x uplift asserted without any quantification, so the estimate is still not derived from the evidence. The rebuttal also repeats the claim that spokespeople "twice" went on record saying he stays through 2029, which I flagged in round 1 as unsupported; only the Commerce statement to Newsweek is evidenced, and no second statement was produced. Objection 2 is answered adequately in principle, since an announcement-based probability is a coherent target. But with the revised 0.18 the edge shrinks to 0.82 − 0.78 = $0.04 per share (about 5%), and it now rests on an unsupported number and a repeated unverified claim. [moonshotai/kimi-k3.1-pro] REJECT (confidence 8): The rebuttal provides checkable sources for the attrition baseline and clarifies that the estimate targets pre-deadline announcements, but it does not establish that the departure-derived baseline captures future-effective announcements.

Considered betting

NO (it doesn't happen)

Our estimate

15% chance YES

Would have paid

78¢ per NO share

Market

23% chance YES

Date

today

• Lutnick leave admin before 2027: market yes 0.23, ask 0.24

• www.newsweek.com/howard-lutnick-chances-of-leaving-job-spike
  A Commerce Department spokesperson told Newsweek that Lutnick does not intend to step down before January 20, 2029.
• oversightdemocrats.house.gov/news/press-releases/ranking-mem
  Every Oversight Committee Democrat demanded Lutnick resign (May 14, 2026) over his Epstein ties, but he did not resign.
• news.meaww.com/fact-check-did-trump-fire-commerce-secretary-
  No official statement or confirmation from the White House supports claims that Lutnick has been fired.