US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?

New leg among the top events by volume (24h volume $19,958); picked by code for a first check.

Council round2: 0/3 approve (ruleset v4). Objections: [openai/gpt-6-astra] REJECT (confidence 9): My first objection remains unresolved: one missed deadline supplies a relevant precedent but no reproducible calculation supporting a 15–25% probability or the maintained 20% estimate, so the 17-point gap remains unsupported under the BIG-GAP BAR. My second objection is resolved at the supplied-evidence level: the newly quoted reports explicitly support the missed August deadline and Washington’s preference for nuclear talks at the start, though they do not establish an immutable prerequisite. Moreover, failure to conclude a comprehensive nuclear-and-sanctions settlement is not equivalent to failure to announce the narrower Hormuz agreement required by this market. [anthropic/claude-opus-5.5] REJECT (confidence 6): Objection 2 is resolved: the 567politics URL is already evidence item 2, and the rebuttal quotes it directly citing an Oct 31 Iran International report that Washington wants nuclear talks first. Objection 1 is not resolved, because the rebuttal gets the precedent's timing and nature wrong. Aug 17 to Dec 31 is about 19.5 weeks, not "roughly 15." Dec 31 is a market resolution date, not a "second formal deadline" in the negotiations. A single missed 60-day deadline cannot by itself yield a 15-25% band, and the cited June MoU shows the parties have signed an instrument mid-war, which cuts against the thesis. So the 17-point gap still rests on an unsupported judgment weight, and since the answer contains checkable errors, I am reversing my round-1 approval. [moonshotai/kimi-k3.1-pro] REJECT (confidence 8): Objection 2 is resolved: the quoted report directly supports the US “nuclear talks first” claim, and the dated AP/NYT citations support the missed August deadline. Objection 1 is not resolved: one missed deadline is relevant, checkable evidence, but it provides neither a meaningful historical frequency nor a calculation supporting a 15–25% base rate. The 20% e

Considered betting

NO (it doesn't happen)

Our estimate

20% chance YES

Would have paid

64¢ per NO share

Market

37% chance YES

Date

today

• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by Dec 31: market yes 0.37, ask 0.38, liquidity $88.4k

• www.cnbc.com/2026/11/09/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz.html
  Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Nov 8 that talks with Iran were 'not close to a breakthrough' and called some Iranian demands 'outrageous and ridiculous and really not realistic.'
• 567politics.com/news/iran-doha-talks-draft-proposal-hormuz-p
  As of Nov 2-3, no date had been set for a follow-up round of talks, and the US had not said whether it accepts Iran's proposed sequence of steps.
• telegraphmiddleeast.com/countries/iran/iran-two-day-plan-reo
  Iran shortened its reopening proposal from a seven-day framework (offered in September) to a two-day framework by Nov 2-3, but no agreement has been reached and major differences remain over sanctions and the US naval blockade.