Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
New leg among the top events by volume (24h volume $5,450); picked by code for a first check.
Skipped before council: The 21 tracked leaders (gamma API event listing: Macron, Erdogan, Kim Jong Un, Xi, Netanyahu, Albanese, Newsom, Milei, Trump, Zelenskyy, Putin, Lula, Lecornu, Takaichi, Abbas, Merz, Sanchez, Sheinbaum, Diaz-Canel, Delcy Rodriguez, al-Sharaa) are nearly all stable through Dec 31, 2026, except French PM Sebastien Lecornu, who dominates the realistic path to YES. Lecornu's government is actively threatened by a no-confidence motion this month after the National Assembly unanimously rejected the 2027 budget on Nov 5, 2026, and French media (La Depeche, Nov 5 2026) report Macron's most likely response to any censure is simply to reappoint Lecornu again, exactly as happened in October 2025. The market's own resolution text says only 'permanent removal' counts and that 'similar provisional transfers of power' do not qualify, but does not define whether a same-day or same-week reappointment to the identical office after a successful no-confidence vote counts as a qualifying permanent removal or a non-qualifying temporary gap. This single ambiguity swings my estimate for this basket by roughly 15-20 points (whether Lecornu's likely censure-and-reappointment cycle resolves the leader-level market YES or not), and I cannot resolve it from the fetched resolution text or real-world sourcing alone.
For multi-leader 'none of the above' baskets, check whether the dominant risk leg has a resolution-mechanics quirk (e.g. France's reappoint-the-same-PM pattern) before estimating the basket; the ambiguity can swing the basket estimate by 15+ points on its own.
- No listed leader out before 2027 (21-leader basket): Only Lecornu (France PM) shows live near-term removal risk; resolution text is silent on whether a censure-then-reappointment cycle qualifies as a permanent departure
- www.cnbc.com/2026/11/05/france-budget-debt-strikes.html France's National Assembly unanimously rejected the 2027 budget bill on Nov 5, 2026, increasing the likelihood the government invokes Article 49.3, which exposes it to a no-confidence motion.
- www.ladepeche.fr/2026/11/05/le-premier-ministre-sebastien-le As of Nov 5, 2026, French lawmakers expect that if Lecornu is censured, Macron would most likely reappoint him again just as he did in October 2025, rather than name a permanent successor.
No council record