REJECTED — Price already looks about right

Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?

View market on Polymarket →

Why it looked attractive

New leg among the top events by volume (24h volume $9,390); picked by code for a first check.

Why it was rejected

Estimate 0.130 is 1.5 points from the market YES price 0.115, under the 5-point council threshold.

Considered betting
YES (it happens)
Our estimate
13% chance YES
Would have paid
12¢ per YES share
Market
12% chance YES
Date
today
Key figures
  • Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?: Polymarket YES 11.5% as of 2026-11-09
Evidence sources
Council verdicts

No council record