Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 15, 2026?
3-days-old RECHECK flag with only 7 days to the Nov 15 deadline, worth confirming the scheduled talks are still on track and the market isn't stale.
The event the market requires has already been publicly confirmed and scheduled with named officials before the deadline; fair value is near-certain (~0.97-0.99). Market price 0.9635 is within 5pts of that estimate, so there is no tradable edge left -- this is a case of the market correctly pricing a near-locked, already-announced event.
- Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 15, 2026: yes 0.9635, moved +0.0125 in 1d, vol24h $2,278
- Abu Dhabi talks schedule: Nov 10-11, two-day session, confirmed by Reuters Nov 2 and Kyiv Independent Nov 7
- www.reuters.com/5f374b32b07b/world/europe/us-hold-trilateral US envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed Nov 2, 2026 that trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks are scheduled for Nov 10-11 in Abu Dhabi.
- kyivindependent.com/russia-to-send-senior-diplomats-military Kremlin spokesperson Peskov confirmed Nov 7, 2026 that Russia will send a senior delegation led by Medinsky to the Abu Dhabi talks on Nov 10-11, alongside a named Ukrainian delegation led by Umerov.
No council record