Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

Price moved 3pts and sits 6pts from our last stored estimate, triggering recheck amid ongoing US-Iran strikes news.

No edge: estimate (78%) within 3pts of market price (75.5%). Price already reflects the elevated but not direct Israel-Iran strike risk; rhetoric without an executed qualifying strike does not change the estimate.

Considered betting

YES (it happens)

Our estimate

78% chance YES

Would have paid

76¢ per YES share

Market

76% chance YES

Date

today

• market_yes_price: 0.755
• my_est_yes: 0.78

• www.dawn.com/live/iran-israel-war/
  Israel defence minister Katz said Nov 9 the 'mission is not complete' on Iran but described no executed Israeli strike on Iranian territory.
• www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/11/9/iran-war-live-trum
  Reported Nov 9 fighting (land blockade, drone strikes, Qeshm strikes) is US-Iran and regional, not a direct Israel-Iran strike exchange.

No council record