Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
Price moved 8pts in 24h (RECHECK trigger) on an active, unresolved US-Iran conflict, flagged to check if the jump was news-driven mispricing.
No mispricing found: the 8pt 1-day move reflects real de-escalatory statements (Trump 'highly unlikely' to strike, Iran pausing escalation pending political clarity), and the cross-date decay curve across sibling legs is internally consistent. My estimate (0.78) sits within 5pts of market (0.785), so there is no tradable edge.
Sibling-leg decay curves across dated ceasefire-continuation markets are a useful internal consistency check: a large 1-day move isn't automatically mispricing if the whole curve stays smooth and matches contemporaneous de-escalation language from principals.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through Nov 30: yes 0.785, moved +0.08 in 1d, vol24h $57,661
- Sibling leg Nov 15: yes 0.935
- Sibling leg Nov 22: yes 0.845
- www.dawn.com/live/iran-israel-war/ Trump told CNN on Nov 9, 2026 that renewed strikes on Iran are 'highly unlikely' if negotiations produce a strong agreement.
- www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-iran-war-live-updates-t Iranian FM Araghchi said mediator travel has paused since the US midterm election 'shock' and urged patience before resuming diplomacy, with no new Israel-Iran strike reported.
No council record