US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?

Price moved 3pts on recheck trigger amid live Qatar-mediated two-day ceasefire proposal reported Nov 9.

No edge: estimate (5%) is within 1pt of market price (4.25%). Active mediation exists but is explicitly paused per Iran's own FM, and a qualifying announcement requires a clear declarative US statement, not just progress in talks.

Considered betting

YES (it happens)

Our estimate

5% chance YES

Would have paid

4¢ per YES share

Market

4% chance YES

Date

today

• market_yes_price: 0.0425
• my_est_yes: 0.05
• days_to_deadline: 7

• www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202611077068
  Qatar proposed a two-day deal (US lifts naval blockade day one, Hormuz reopens day two) ahead of Trump-Qatar PM meeting Nov 9; no agreement reached.
• www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202611077068
  Iran FM Araghchi said mediators have not travelled for several days due to the 'shock' of the US midterm elections and need more time before resuming.

No council record