Will Anthropic IPO by November 24, 2026?

Price moved 8.5pts in 1 day and sits 5pts from our last stored estimate, triggering recheck.

No edge: estimate (72%) within 2pts of market price (70.5%). The pre-Thanksgiving target is well short of 100% confidence of landing specifically by Nov 24 rather than Nov 25-26, and the market price already reflects that spread.

Considered betting

YES (it happens)

Our estimate

72% chance YES

Would have paid

72¢ per YES share

Market

71% chance YES

Date

today

• market_yes_price: 0.705
• my_est_yes: 0.72

• tilt.now/news/story/c20f95e9-dc1e-586e-974d-2df9c5bbac3e
  Nov 9 report: Anthropic still targets a Nasdaq listing the week of Nov 16, before Thanksgiving, despite valuation talk dropping as low as $1.0-1.1T after the Nov 5 selloff.
• diespekulanten.de/wirtschafts-news/anthropic-roadshow-zeitpl
  German financial outlet reports the firm target is Nasdaq debut in the week of Nov 16, in any case before Thanksgiving (Nov 26), with several outlets naming Nov 19-20 as the pricing date.

No council record