Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?

Price moved 5pts on recheck; a specialist aviation tracker reported the contract fell from 41% (Oct 22) to 18% (Nov 4) on Doha mediation progress.

No edge: estimate (12%) within 2pts of market price (13.5%). The market has already priced in the de-escalation from Doha talks; nothing in current reporting points to an imminent Iranian self-closure of the Tehran FIR.

Considered betting

NO (it doesn't happen)

Our estimate

12% chance YES

Would have paid

88¢ per NO share

Market

14% chance YES

Date

today

• market_yes_price: 0.135
• my_est_yes: 0.12

• saferoutes.online/blog/iran-airspace-open-or-closed-november
  As of Nov 7, 2026 the Tehran FIR (OIIX) is reopened to overflights per Iran's own posture; only Western regulators (US, EU, UK, Canada) advise their carriers to avoid it, which does not qualify as an Iranian closure.
• saferoutes.online/blog/iran-airspace-open-or-closed-november
  Polymarket's Iran airspace-closure contract fell from 41% on Oct 22 to 18% on Nov 4, tied to Doha mediation talks between Iran and Qatar on Oct 31.

No council record