US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?
Price moved 6pt in 24h on a US-Iran blockade-ending leg, flagged for recheck.
Re-estimate (18%) sits within 1.5pts of the market price (19.5%); the active-but-unresolved negotiation track is already reflected in the price.
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?: yes 0.195, bid 0.19, ask 0.20, liquidity 182398
- Qatar-mediated nuclear-inspections-for-blockade plan: reported Nov 7, not yet agreed
- Status of talks as of Nov 2: continuing, 'no breakthrough' per Al-Monitor
- www.theguardian.com/world/2026/nov/07/strait-of-hormuz-qatar Nov 7: a Qatari plan under negotiation would have the US immediately lift the naval blockade on Iran in exchange for IAEA access to bombed nuclear sites; not yet agreed.
- www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/11/iran-says-contacts-over Nov 2: US-Iran contacts via Qatari mediators continue but ended with 'no breakthrough'; Iranian sources believed a new US attack was still more likely than a deal.
- www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/11/9/iran-war-live-trum Nov 9: Trump says a new US land blockade on Iran is in effect, while Iran threatens to 'rain down hell' if strikes resume, pointing to continued tension rather than imminent de-escalation.
No council record