Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

Price dropped 4pts in 24h on a RECHECK trigger with the Nov 29 Spanish election 20 days out, large volume ($3.2M total, $55k/24h) and active campaign news, so worth a fresh look for a mispricing.

Fair-value estimate (~8%) is within 5pts of Polymarket's 6.2% price given the decomposed poll/seat math; no exploitable edge.

Considered betting

—

Our estimate

8% chance YES

Would have paid

—

Market

6% chance YES

Date

today

• Polymarket Sanchez YES (Nov 9): 6.2%
• Polymarket Feijoo YES (Nov 9): 93%
• electiontracker.eu aggregator (Nov 3): Sanchez 12-13%, Feijoo 85%
• Progressive bloc poll average seats (Nov 9, 8 polls): ~155 (176 - 21 needed), individual polls 141-182
• 2023 election result (for comparison): PP 137, PSOE 121, Vox 33 - PP+Vox fell short of 176 then

• www.elindependiente.com/espana/2026/11/09/asi-encuestas-gene
  8 polls published Nov 7-9 average 21 seats short of majority for Sanchez's bloc; individual poll range 141-182 projected seats
• electiontracker.eu/spain/prime-minister-2026
  Market-implied aggregator (Nov 3) gives Feijoo 85%, Sanchez 12-13%, Abascal 3%
• en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Spanish_general_election
  2023 result was PP 137, PSOE 121, Vox 33 seats - PP+Vox then fell short of the 176 majority, which is why Sanchez could govern via Junts abstention

No council record