Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?

Price moved 5pt with a 7pt gap vs our last estimate on an Iran airspace-closure leg, flagged for recheck.

Re-estimate (15%) is within 4pts of the market price (19%); the price has already adjusted to the de-escalation signals I found, leaving no exploitable gap.

Considered betting

NO (it doesn't happen)

Our estimate

15% chance YES

Would have paid

82¢ per NO share

Market

19% chance YES

Date

today

• Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?: yes 0.19, bid 0.18, ask 0.20, liquidity 28825
• Market price trend reported by Rio Times: 41% on Oct 22 -> ~18% by Nov 4
• Western NOTAM expiry dates to watch: France/Germany Nov 12, EASA Nov 16, Italy Nov 29

• saferoutes.online/blog/iran-airspace-open-or-closed-november
  As of Nov 7, 2026, Iran's own Tehran FIR is reopened to overflights; closures in force are Western regulators' own bans on their carriers, not an Iranian general closure, and the Polymarket contract fell from 41% (Oct 22) to ~18% (Nov 4) with no new Iranian NOTAM.
• www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/11/9/iran-war-live-trum
  Nov 9: Trump says a new US land blockade on Iran is in effect and warns of renewed strikes, while Iran threatens escalation if attacked again — tension persists but no airspace-closure signal from Iran.

No council record