Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?

Price moved 7pt in 24h with a 6pt gap vs our last estimate on a near-term Anthropic IPO leg, flagged for recheck.

Re-estimate (13%) lands within 1.5pts of the market price (14.5%); the fastest-path scenario is already reflected in the price, no residual edge.

Considered betting

NO (it doesn't happen)

Our estimate

13% chance YES

Would have paid

86¢ per NO share

Market

14% chance YES

Date

today

• Will Anthropic IPO by November 18, 2026?: yes 0.145, bid 0.14, ask 0.15, liquidity 3577
• SpaceX-comparable fastest path (23 days from S-1): maps to Nov 18, 2026 exactly
• Investor valuation range discussed Nov 6: $1.1T-1.3T vs earlier $2T target

• finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/article/anthropic-ipo-what-w
  SpaceX-comparable fastest path (23 days from public filing to first trade) maps to Wed Nov 18, 2026.
• www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusiveai-backlas
  As of Nov 5, investors doubt the roadshow can proceed in time for a November listing given valuation pushback.
• www.cnbc.com/2026/11/07/anthropic-ipo-ai-data-center-backlas
  Nov 7: Anthropic is 'likely targeting mid-November' but faces AI-backlash headwinds and a steep Nasdaq selloff that could delay timing.

No council record