Will Anthropic IPO by November 17, 2026?

Price moved 3pt and the last check is 1+ days old on a near-term Anthropic IPO leg, flagged for recheck.

Estimate (4%) sits within 2pts of the market price (5.6%) after incorporating the delay-risk news; no edge survives re-estimation at this recheck.

Considered betting

NO (it doesn't happen)

Our estimate

4% chance YES

Would have paid

96¢ per NO share

Market

6% chance YES

Date

today

• Will Anthropic IPO by November 17, 2026?: yes 0.056, bid 0.043, ask 0.069, liquidity 4600
• Earliest possible IPO date per SEC timeline: Nov 16, 2026 (Yahoo Finance calc)
• Fastest comparable (SpaceX filing-to-trade): 23 days -> maps to ~Nov 18 for Anthropic

• finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/article/anthropic-ipo-what-w
  Earliest possible IPO trade date is Nov 16, 2026; SpaceX-comparable fastest path points to Nov 18.
• www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/exclusiveai-backlas
  Investors as of Nov 5 doubt the November roadshow/listing timeline can hold given valuation pushback.
• www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-11-06/anthropic-ipo-val
  Nov 6: buyers discussing $1.1-1.3T valuation vs earlier $2T target amid the AI-stock selloff, adding friction to a fast listing.

No council record