Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?
Price moved 4pts in a day on the Dec 15 ceasefire-continuation leg, checked against the pricing of sibling date-legs for consistency.
Sibling ceasefire-continuation legs decay smoothly with time (Nov15 91.5%, Nov22 83.5%, Nov30 77.5%, Dec15 64.5%, Dec31 56.5%), implying a steady daily survival probability of about 98.6%. Projecting that same decay from the Nov30 leg to Dec15 (15 more days) gives roughly 77.5% x 0.986^15 = ~63%, matching the market's 64.5% within 2pts. The curve is internally consistent and no news source suggests a change in the underlying ceasefire risk, so there is no edge here.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?: 91.5% yes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?: 77.5% yes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?: 64.5% yes (this leg)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?: 56.5% yes
- www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/11/09/iran-US-proposal/ Nov 9, 2026: war between US/Israel and Iran remains in its ninth month with no new strikes reported since the original Feb 28 attack and current ceasefire; conflict centers on diplomacy, not renewed Israel-Iran strikes.
- www.theguardian.com/world/2026/nov/07/strait-of-hormuz-qatar Nov 7, 2026: Qatar mediating nuclear-inspection and Hormuz proposals, no reports of fresh Israel-Iran military strikes that would break the ceasefire.
No council record