US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?

Price moved 3pts in a day amid active US-Iran Hormuz negotiations reported this week, worth a fresh check against the news.

Iran has offered a 2-day implementation plan (reopen Hormuz once US meets conditions) since early Nov, and Trump called talks 'coming together nicely' on Nov 2. But Nov 9 reporting has Rubio saying there is no breakthrough and calling Iran's demands 'outrageous,' and Iran threatening renewed fighting if the US doesn't accept its terms. Nine months of stalemate with repeated false-dawn optimism and a high bar for resolution (both sides must announce acceptance of the SAME agreement) keeps our estimate near the market's 15.5-16%; no 5+pt edge.

Considered betting

YES (it happens)

Our estimate

16% chance YES

Would have paid

16¢ per YES share

Market

16% chance YES

Date

today

• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?: 15.5% yes, 0.01 spread, $91.6k liquidity

• www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/11/09/iran-US-proposal/
  Nov 9, 2026: Rubio says US is not 'on the verge of a breakthrough'; Iran's FM threatens renewed fighting if US doesn't accept its proposal.
• www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/2/iran-pushing-accelerated-pl
  Nov 2, 2026: Trump says talks are 'coming together nicely' and Iran's 7-step plan (incl. Hormuz reopening) could be implemented within two days once agreed, but no deal signed yet.

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