Robert Pattinson announced as next James Bond?

New leg; price dropped 9.75pts in a day right after reports confirmed Pattinson as a real screen-test contender, a counterintuitive move worth checking.

Nov 6-9 reporting confirms Pattinson screen-tested alongside four other finalists (Hoult, Turner, O'Connor, Lowden) for the next Bond. Treating these five as roughly even favorites and discounting for the chance no announcement lands by Dec 31 (decision reportedly expected by late Nov but could slip, per Deadline) gives roughly 0.65 x 0.20 = ~13% for Pattinson specifically. That is only about 3pts above the market's 10%, inside the no-edge band, and liquidity here is thin ($7.1k) with a 1.7pt spread.

Considered betting

YES (it happens)

Our estimate

13% chance YES

Would have paid

11¢ per YES share

Market

10% chance YES

Date

today

• Robert Pattinson announced as next James Bond?: 10.05% yes, 5 known finalists in screen tests

• deadline.com/2026/11/robert-pattinson-nicholas-hoult-james-b
  Deadline (Nov 2026): Pattinson and Hoult confirmed added to screen tests alongside Lowden, O'Connor, Turner; decision expected by end of month, possibly before Thanksgiving.
• variety.com/2026/film/news/james-bond-casting-robert-pattins
  Variety (Nov 6, 2026): confirms Pattinson and Hoult screen-tested for Denis Villeneuve's Bond; no decision made yet, Amazon declined to comment.

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