Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?

Stored check was 3+ days old (no price-move trigger), flagged for a routine RECHECK before the Nov 30 deadline.

With named delegations already traveling to a confirmed, publicly announced trilateral meeting two to three weeks before the deadline, resolution risk is limited to a last-minute cancellation. Fair value sits around 97-98%, within 2pts of the market's 96.85%; no edge.

Considered betting

YES (it happens)

Our estimate

98% chance YES

Would have paid

98¢ per YES share

Market

97% chance YES

Date

today

• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?: market YES 96.85%, bid 0.961 ask 0.976, liquidity $49,229
• Confirmed meeting date: Abu Dhabi trilateral talks scheduled Nov 10-11, 2026

• www.reuters.com/5f374b32b07b/world/europe/us-hold-trilateral
  US envoy Witkoff said the US will bring together Ukraine and Russia delegations in Abu Dhabi on Nov 10-11, 2026.
• kyivindependent.com/russia-to-send-senior-diplomats-military
  Russia confirmed (Nov 7) it will send a senior delegation led by Medinsky, including Ryabkov, Galuzin and Kostyukov, to the Abu Dhabi talks on Nov 10-11.

No council record