Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
Price moved 6pts since the last check (now 61.5% YES) and sat 6pts from our stored estimate, flagged for RECHECK amid an active but still-narrowly-defined ceasefire.
Decomposing weekly hazard of a qualifying strike at a stalled-but-not-broken-down diplomatic state over ~7.5 weeks gives roughly 55-62% survival, landing within the market's 61.5%. Gap to market is under 5pts after the fresh estimate; no edge.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?: market YES 61.5%, bid 0.61 ask 0.62, liquidity $108,689
- Mediator travel status: Araghchi: no mediator travel since US midterm results, calls for patience
- www.dawn.com/live/iran-israel-war/ Trump tells CNN on Nov 9 that renewed fighting is 'highly unlikely' unless a strong agreement is not signed; Iran FM Araghchi says mediators have not traveled since the US midterm 'shock'.
- www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/11/9/iran-war-live-trum Nov 9 Al Jazeera liveblog: Trump says US land blockade on Iran is in effect and renewed strikes are 'highly unlikely' if talks on the nuclear programme and Hormuz reopening progress.
No council record