Will Anthropic IPO by November 17, 2026?

Price moved 6pts since the last check (now 11.6% YES) and sat 8pts from our stored estimate, flagged for RECHECK on a near-term Anthropic IPO leg.

Nov 17 falls one day inside the earliest SEC-rule window and before the SpaceX-precedent date; stacking (roadshow starts on time: ~70%) x (bankers choose the fastest, atypical pricing day: ~15%) gives roughly 8-10% probability, matching the market's 11.6%. Gap under 5pts; no edge.

Considered betting

NO (it doesn't happen)

Our estimate

8% chance YES

Would have paid

90¢ per NO share

Market

12% chance YES

Date

today

• Will Anthropic IPO by November 17, 2026?: market YES 11.55%, bid 0.103 ask 0.128, liquidity $1,835
• SEC-rule earliest trading day: Nov 16, 2026 per Yahoo Finance SEC-rule calculation

• finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/article/anthropic-ipo-what-w
  Earliest date price can be set is Nov 13, 2026; earliest possible IPO is Nov 16, 2026; SpaceX-precedent timeline points to Nov 18.
• marketspeaker.com/briefs/anthropic-ipo-roadshow-next-week-no
  Nov 8 report (The Information) says Anthropic still plans to proceed with its roadshow the week of Nov 9, despite the Nov 5 Reuters report of investor valuation pushback.

No council record