Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
Price drifted to a point 6pts away from our last stored estimate, flagged for RECHECK; the broader Middle East war news this week (Iraqi gas-field drone strike, tanker mine attacks, blockade) made the ceasefire status worth re-checking.
Re-derived estimate from the narrow resolution definition lands at 0.55, within 1pt of the market's 0.555 -- genuine no-edge. The stored 6pt gap was stale drift, not a live mispricing; no qualifying Israel-Iran strike occurred this week to justify moving off the market's own decay curve.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?: yes 0.555, bid 0.55, ask 0.56, liquidity $126,548
- ...through November 15?: yes 0.915
- ...through November 30?: yes 0.725
- ...through December 15?: yes 0.605
- www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/11/9/iran-war-live-trum Nov 9: drone strike on Khor Mor gas facility (Iraqi Kurdistan) and US 'Iron Gate' land blockade on Iran are the lead items; neither is a direct Israel-Iran air/missile strike under the market's resolution criteria.
- thewarrecord.com/iran-war/timeline/2026-11/ Nov 6-8 timeline entries show tanker mine strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi-Saudi exchanges, and US 'minor strikes' on Iranian air defenses, but record no Israeli strike on Iranian territory or Iranian strike on Israeli territory in this window.
No council record