US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?
Flagged as RECHECK by scan_tools: price moved 4pts in the last check window and the stored prior estimate was 5pts from the new price.
Decomposition estimate (3%) lands within 5pts of market price (7.3%); no actionable edge per self-check rules.
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by Nov 15, 2026 (yes): 7.3%
- Vessels redirected under current blockade since July 14 restart: 147 (CENTCOM, as of Nov 7)
- My decomposed YES estimate: 3%
- www.nacionale.com/en/articles/is-us-blockading-iran-naval-bl Nov 8 2026: Task Force Iron Gate, announced Nov 7, extends blockade pressure to Iran's land borders and Caspian Sea; CENTCOM says 147 vessels redirected, 5 disabled since July 14 restart.
- www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-us-strait-hormuz Nov 8 2026: Trump posted the new task force 'is in full force and effect' alongside the existing naval blockade; US forces disabled a vessel attempting to breach the blockade on Nov 7.
- www.dawn.com/news/2041604 Nov 2 2026: Iran FM Araghchi says Iran expects the US to end the blockade as a condition for Hormuz reopening, i.e. Iran is still demanding this, confirming it has not happened.
No council record