REJECTED — Price already looks about right

Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?

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Why it looked attractive

Leg price jumped from 25.5% (Nov 19 leg) to 56.5% in one day, a 31pt one-day gap between adjacent-date legs, flagged for RECHECK as an 18pt gap vs our stored estimate.

Why it was rejected

Revised, source-based decomposition lands within 1pt of market price (0.56 vs 0.565) -- genuine no-edge, not a 'market already knows' dodge. The 18pt stale-estimate gap was an artifact of an outdated stored estimate predating this week's reporting on roadshow timing, not a live mispricing.

Considered betting
NO (it doesn't happen)
Our estimate
56% chance YES
Would have paid
45¢ per NO share
Market
56% chance YES
Date
today
Key figures
  • Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?: yes 0.565, bid 0.55, ask 0.58, liquidity $7,361
  • Will Anthropic IPO by November 19, 2026?: yes 0.255
  • Roadshow status as of Nov 6-9: proceeding week of Nov 9; JPMorgan investor presentation scheduled Nov 13
  • Listing target window: week of Nov 16, before Thanksgiving Nov 26, per CNBC/The Information/FT
Evidence sources
Council verdicts

No council record